The Slander Incentive

Case studies of prediction market manipulation

From $45M single-trader positions to oracle exploits and wash trading rings — documented manipulation across every major prediction market platform.

Game theory & disinformation economics

The game theory behind slander trades: how rational actors profit from strategic disinformation when markets reward deception.

Current deterrence, regulation & instruments

Platform safeguards, regulatory frameworks, and emerging financial instruments — mapping what exists, what fails, and what is missing.

Sports fixing, short-and-distort & assassination markets

Every financial instrument goes through a manipulation crisis before mature regulation. Prediction markets are following the same arc.

Reputation CDS, anti-slander bonds & credibility markets

Five financial instruments that could structurally defend against prediction market slander — from reputation credit-default swaps to soulbound tokens.

Stress-testing every instrument against mechanism design theory

Which instruments actually align incentives — and which create new perverse ones? Strawmanning, steelmanning, and grading every proposal, plus five new mechanisms from first principles.

Products people would actually buy

Two markets exist: people buying protection for their own reputation, and instruments that let subjects call BS with money. Six refined concepts, stress-tested and ranked.

Prediction market reputation monitoring — GTM plan

The first reputation security service for prediction markets. Monitoring, alerting, and rapid response when betting markets are weaponized against your brand. Go-to-market plan from MVP to $2M ARR.